Life is hard to predict in Iraq, and instead of being embedded with the 1st Infantry Division I'm still in Baghdad. That being the case, I'm making an effort to familiarize myself more fully with the issues and personalities involved in this month's elections.
One of the hardest parts of working in Iraq is conducting good interviews. For political reasons neither American nor Iraqi officials tend to give straight answers to basic questions about the nature of the insurgency, the prospect for a free and fair election, and so on. It is very difficult to verify the information you do get from these interviews, and talking with insurgents and their sympathizers is not only difficult but also dangerous. Even leaving the complex to talk to someone in the Green Zone is a calculated risk.
But this is my job, so this afternoon I decided to start by scheduling an interview with someone who usually at least considers tough questions without walking out or clamming up. I was pretty confident I'd at least get an overview of the key issues and dilemmas facing Iraq in the coming months. Since I don't think this is going to get published in the tradtional media I decided I'd post the transcript here. It has all the hallmarks of an interview with an Iraqi official (or an American military source, for that matter): evasive and sometimes cryptic answers, references to unnamed "individuals" or "sources" and the subject's unwillingness to betray too much of his own thinking while answering questions. Without further ado, here's my interview with the online
Magic 8-ball:
Crain: With many Sunni areas overwhelmed by violence or still under de-facto insurgent control, is there a risk that the coming vote will under-represent Sunnis and make the insurgency worse?
Magic 8-ball: Outlook hazy, try again.
Crain: With many Sunni areas overwhelmed by violence or still under de-facto insurgent control, is there a risk that the coming vote will under-represent Sunnis and make the insurgency worse, Magic 8-ball?
Magic 8-ball: It is certain.
Crain: American officials have emphasized the role Iraqi security forces will play in protecting polling places and ballots from terrorist attacks, but many Iraqi units are still undertrained, ill-equipped and intimidated by insurgents. Can a safe vote be conducted with Iraqi government forces taking the security lead?
Magic 8-ball: Ask again later.
Crain: Okay, we'll come back to that. Should Iraqis worry about how much influence Iran will have in a government that will probably be dominated by Shi’ites, many of whom have contacts with Tehran?
Magic 8-ball: Reply hazy, try again.
Crain: Magic 8-ball, should Iraqis worry about how much influence Iran will have in a government that will probably be dominated by Shi'ites, many of whom have contacts with Tehran?
Magic 8-ball: Ask again later.
Crain: No problem, we'll leave that one for the end. Magic 8-ball, can elections confer legitimacy on an Iraqi government while 150,000 American troops are still present in the country?
Magic 8-ball: My sources say no.
Crain: Interesting. US officials say that Kurdish claims to land and oil around Kirkuk be dealt with through the political process. But will Kurdish militia take matters into their own hands?
Magic 8-ball: Outlook good.
Crain: American military officials say that Iraqis in Fallujah can be won over, despite destruction in the city, by American reconstruction efforts. But as civilians begin returning to the city will renewed infiltration by insurgents make large-scale reconstruction too dangerous?
Magic 8-ball: My sources say no.
Crain: The suicide bombing in a US Army mess hall in Mosul has heightened tensions between Americans and the Iraqis who work on their bases. Can there be effective security cooperation and training programs in this atmosphere of distrust, Magic 8-ball?
Magic 8-ball: My sources say no.
Crain: After the Fallujah offensive there has been an upswing in deadly attacks on Iraqi security forces. Will occupying insurgent strongholds simply prompt insurgents to relocate to other cities and continue their attacks?
Magic 8-ball: Very doubtful.
Crain: Abu Musaib al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian arch-terrorist operating in Iraq, claims ties to al-Qaeda and was recently embraced by Osama bin Laden. Is the fighting in Iraq a breeding ground for the next generation of pan-Arab holy warriors in the bin Laden mold?
Magic 8-ball: Yes, definitely.
Crain: America has warned Syria to prevent insurgents from crossing its border into Iraq, and has implied it might use military force to curtail Iran’s nuclear program. But with 150,000 troops tied down in Iraq, and no end to the fighting in sight, will American tough-talk deter its opponents in the Middle East?
Magic 8-ball: Outlook not so good.
Crain: If I could follow up on a couple things we went over earlier... American officials have emphasized the role Iraqi security forces will play in protecting polling places and ballots from terrorist attacks, but many Iraqi units are still undertrained, ill-equipped and intimidated by insurgents. Can a safe vote be conducted with Iraqi government forces taking the security lead?
Magic 8-ball: Yes, definitely.
Crain: Great. And lastly, should Iraqis worry about how much influence Iran will have in a government that will probably be dominated by Shi'ites, many of whom have contacts with Tehran?
Magic 8-ball: Signs point to yes.
Crain: Okay, great. Well, thank you very much for your time, this was very helpful for me. I hope I can call you if I have any follow-ups, and just to keep in touch as the election gets closer.
Magic 8-ball: It is certain.
Crain: Thanks very much.
*****
The format of the interview made it tough to ask follow-up questions, but all in all I was pleased--this was my first interview with the Magic 8-ball and I expect it to open up as we get to know each other better and build some trust. I think, though, that the general picture the 8-ball paints is accurate--the US is making some progress on reconstruction and training Iraqi security forces, but the mere presence of US troops in the country may be harming the security situation here, inflaming jihadist passions, and emboldening America's regional enemies. The outlook is, indeed, hazy.
